Forecast for 2014… A Lot Like 2013 (Redux)

I first posted this article on my personal blog on September 1, 2013, before the NC Subcontractors Alliance had a website. This is even more relevant now and Martha-Ann’s forecast for a turnaround in the 4th quarter of 2014 is getting more tenuous. In reality, nothing has changed and current economic forecasts are for nothing to change until 2015. Things are slightly improving in North Carolina, but at the US government level, both sides are playing to their constituencies and nothing is changing……

Long-time members of ASAC-Charlotte, now NC Subcontractors Alliance, will remember a program in 2008 by Martha-Ann Marley, called “A Contractors Diet: How To Get Lean.” The program was a segment of her 2 hour seminar and based on an article she wrote for the CFMA magazine, “Building Profits,” January-February 2006 issue. Based on her 24 year experience as a surety underwriter with a major surety company, poring over thousands of financial statements, audits and economic data, she realized certain common attributes of companies that survived and thrived during down economies, versus those that failed. The main attributes being, maintaining liquid assets, cash flow and a plan for controlling costs during the downturn.

Based on her study of economic data, she predicted that the coming recession, now known as The Great Recession, would be deep and would not begin to show improvement until 2013. She gave a detailed list of things that contractor’s needed to do to survive and thrive during the recession. In her latest seminar based on her article “Stuck in Neutral?” “Building Profits”, May-June 2012 issue, Martha-Ann shows the data that indicates the bottom of the recession was reached in early 2013. But, there are not yet any indicators showing that the economy is pulling up off the bottom. She has now revised her prediction. Now, she predicts that the economy will not show improvement until late 2014.

There is still a lot of uncertainty in the economy. What is the Fed going to do with interest rates? What is going to be the cost to your business for Obamacare? What will be the impact of pending federal regulations from OSHA and EPA? Remember, the EPA director in speeches has promised to “regulate the coal industry into bankruptcy.” What will that do to energy prices?

If you can’t attend one of Martha-Ann Marley’s seminars, you owe it to yourself and your company to read her articles. She is now NC President of Gardner Insurance Group. These articles are available on her website, http://www.gardner-insurance.com/ and can be downloaded in a pdf format by clicking on the pictures of the magazine covers.